A bright spot: renewable energy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently completed its mission to Greece and published its preliminary findings on May 25. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (which usually means borrowing from the IMF). The report can be accessed here.

The report does not really state anything new. Greece has been largely relying on cheap debt to generate growth over the last 15 years. However, at least for the foreseeable future, the availability of reasonably priced debt will be scarce - global financiers such as commercial banks, investment banks, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds etc., have had to reign in their lending, and if they decide to lend,Greece is not high on their list. Another problem is that the very high borrowing requirements of the Greek state mean that it ‘crowds out’ the private sector – which has become increasingly reliant on debt rather than savings to finance investment (not to the same extent as Ireland or the United Kingdom).

The IMF points out that Greece needs to make the necessary reforms to its economy in order to become more productive and competitive by reducing inefficiencies in its state bureaucracies (which includes reducing public debt to fuel growth) and encourage private enterprise.

Amongst all the discouraging news there are some bright spots. Global accounting firm, Ernst and Young has just published its latest “Renewable energy country attractiveness indices” which scores countries for national renewable energy markets, renewable energy infrastructures and their suitability for individual technologies. Greece ranks 12th overall ahead of Sweden, the Netherlands, Norway, Japan and Finland. Of course, Greece has a comparative advantage in solar (reflected in their high ranking in this category) and to a lesser extent wind; but recent government initiatives, have also found favour amongst investors.

Source: IMF, Ernst and Young, Antipodes

The importance of the Aegean Sea-Dardanelles

People often bemoan that Greece has no geopolitical or geo-economic tools at its disposal in which it can use to formulate an effective international political strategy when dealing with its near abroad and even further away. Perhaps they have been overly influenced by former Prime Minister, Costas Simitis’s reductionist mentality that Greece is a “small, Balkan nation”, implying it has no place playing with third, second rate or even first rate powers. Of course, this is incorrect. However, one may be correct in stating that she does not use her geopolitical tools to her advantage.

A very important geopolitical and geo-economic tool is the Aegean Sea. The importance of this seaway is neatly summarised by Dr Ioannis Mazis, Professor of Geo-Economics and Geopolitics at the Ionian University, in an article titled, “Geopolitical Analysis of the Commercial Sea Channel Dardanelles-Aegean” which was originally published in the Archives of Economic History in 1997 (shortly after the Imia crisis). Although, the article is somewhat dated and poorly translated it is also surprising how very little has changed in Greek-Turkish relations regarding the Aegean Sea over the last 10-15 years.

The article begins by explaining the importance of the Aegean Sea as a sea route and air passage between Europe and Turkey and the broader Eastern Mediterranean, and between the former Soviet Republics of Russia, Ukraine (including the shipment of oil and gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan etc.) and the Mediterranean Sea. Interestingly, Mazis writes that the Aegean airspace is one of the main airways connecting Israel with the United States and Western Europe which is of major importance for the survival of Israel - with the implication that Israel would never consent to the occupation of this airspace by an unfriendly power. He concludes that the Aegean Sea is a very important space in the context of geopolitical dynamics and control and is an asset for whichever power has sovereign rights over it.

Regarding Greece's maritime borders, the present 6 nautical miles extension from land means there are strips of international waters between the Aegean islands and islets providing for a "Sea Crossing" for ships moving unheeded between the Black Sea/Dardanelles and the Mediterranean Sea. However, Greece can effectively close the Aegean Sea if she extends her maritime borders. Mazis writes:

According to estimations taken seriously by the American government, the extension of Greek territorial waters from 6 to 12 miles - which is absoulutely legitimate according to the International Sea Law - would cede 72% of the Aegean Sea to Greece and only 9% to Turkey; at the same time, the percentage of international waters would fall to some 19%, closing almost all sea passages and "transforming the Aegean Sea into a Greek lake" creating "similar stifling situations" as in the airspace , according to Turkish declarations.

Mazis also points out that control of the Aegean Sea on its own is not does not confer as much power as controlling the Aegean Sea and the Dardanelles together (the narrow straits separating the Aegean Sea from the Black Sea) which perhaps provides clues as to Turkey's long-term strategy. He writes:

An Aegean without "Straits" [Dardanelles] lacks substance. One must control the block of Aegean-Straits otherwise the control of the Aegean Sea or the Straits is meaningless.

Source: Archives of Economic History (Ioannis Mazis), Antipodes

The Greeks get a wake-up call

The Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS), an independent Greek think-tank, has just published two special editorial reports which can be accessed here following the recent riots by Muslims in the Greek capital, Athens.

Beginning May 21 and continuing on May 22, around 2,000 mostly illegal Muslim immigrants (reportedly from Afghanistan and Pakistan) clashed with police in the centre of Athens. The police fired tear gas and stun grenades; 14 people were injured and 46 arrested. The riots started over the alleged defacing of a Koran by a Greek policeman following an identity check. A recent wave of illegal immigration has led to an influx of Muslims living in dilapidated parts of central Athens.

The RIEAS report titled, “Never say we didn’t tell you….” describes the gravity of the situation now facing the Greeks:

The scenes in downtown Athens on May 22 – a date already marked by those who follow events with a more sombre eye as the beginning of something extremely dangerous – were unprecedented.......Suddenly, the Greek government has been made brutally aware that the uncontrolled entry of illegal immigrants into the country, and the formation of large blocks of culturally alien populations in the middle of Greek society, carries implications that cannot, and won't be, addressed successfully by the jargon of political correctness and the demands of overarching foreign structures impervious to common sense, not to mention the iron lessons of history.

Previously, RIEAS had warned readers about the looming Islamic extremist terrorist threat in Greece and the inability of the authorities to do anything about it:

There is little evidence, if any, that Greek authorities give the requisite attention to the critical question of the possibility of illegal immigration bringing into Greece Islamic "sleeper" terrorists or, indeed, spawning locally resident disgruntled populations that could engender future terror attacks against Christian Greece. The myth [of Greek-Arab-Islam friendship] plays an important role in this complacent attitude. Yet, real threats hardly evolve along the lines of what makes one feel good and helps him avoid dark thoughts about the future.

The report continues rather pessimistically:

On May 22, we crossed a critical threshold. The Muslim riot, couched on the kind of belligerent religious rhetoric we thought, until now, it was the unenviable privilege of other European lands grappling with the challenge of hostile Islam, is a deafening warning to the government and the people of this country.

Greece has just had her wake-up call. Let's see if she rises as she must to do what it takes to contain and defeat the almost inevitable “next phase.” Our estimate, in this respect, is not optimistic.

In another articled titled, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses …” RIEAS describes the broader geopolitical and security concerns caused by the recent wave of illegal immigration and the recent riots:

With her eastern Aegean islands under threat from a swelling wave of Asian undocumented aliens arriving with the help of Turkish human traffickers – and with Turkey doing little, if anything, to honour bilateral agreements to control illegal immigration – the Greek government has finally announced it will deploy the armed forces next to shorthanded police and coast guards in trying to reduce illegal arrivals.

Illegal immigration is quickly shaping into the most critical national security threat of today, closely related, as a subsidiary part, to the long-simmering crisis whipped up by Turkey's neo-Ottoman expansionism and constant saber rattling in the Aegean. Greek governments were slow to appreciate the broader picture.

Caught in unilateral “good neighbourly relations” mentalities toward Ankara, in the absence of a more focused, cohesive, and realistic approach to Turkish belligerence, they are now watching, largely impotent, as successive waves of Asians and Africans, pushed relentlessly forward by Turkish human trafficking rings, arrive at the country's doorstep uninvited but demanding, nevertheless, their “human rights” from a country that she, herself, faces enormous economic, political, and social problems even without hundreds of thousands beating down her gates.

Source: RIEAS, Antipodes

Antonis Samaras spells out a new vision for all

The increasingly partisan, bland and self-defeating rhetoric of Greek politicians; particularly on domestic issues, is not a primary concern of Antipodes. However, the Greek Minister of Culture, Antonis Samaras recently made a very noticeable speech at the conservative think-tank, the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute of Democracy, regarding the “Challenges and Prospects for the EU”. Excerpts from the speech were published in an article in Eleftherotypia and are translated below:

Until recently, some have identified Europe with its bureaucracy. They had even identified that Greece had to be subjugated to European-bureaucracy in order to undergo “modernization”.

”They told us, in order to become “more Europeans”, we must be “less Greeks”. Supposedly, we had to eliminate our Greek identity in order to gain “European consciousness”. Now, after the [financial] crisis, we probably recognise the opposite: We have to become more demanding of ourselves, as Greeks, to become Europeans”.

Mr Samaras said that patriotism is a precondition of social cohesion, confidence, security and peaceful cooperation with other nations and said that if we ever lose our national identity we will become a patchwork of regionalism without jointrelations, without coherent linkages, without solidarity between us.

"Those who consider national consciousness and our collective identity “κουσούρι” are wrong! A very serious mistake. And these people stand in stark contrast with the overwhelming majority of the Greek people which will not negotiate or surrender their traditions, nor their culture, nor all those things which unite us over all those enturies” Samaras said. He added: “Our freedom and Greekness are are non-negotiable goods".

As John Akritas from Hellenic Antidote wrote, “not only is it a good speech from Samaras – Dragoumian in places – it is refreshing that such an ideological speech was made. Greece needs a vision, not someone whose raison d'être is to manage the crisis from day to day – like Karamanlis”.

We would go further than Samaras and propose that for any Greek living anywhere, whether it is in Greece, Cyprus, northern Epirus, the United States, Canada, South Africa, Australia, Germany, Ukraine or anywhere else, to be a good citizen of your respective country means that you have to be a better Greek. This is because Hellenic culture throughout its variegated history always aspired for universality and justice; therefore, making it applicable across space and time.

Antonis Samaras is a former Member of the European Parliament for New Democracy; part of the European People's Party. He was Greek Minister for Foreign Affairs in the New Democracy government of Konstantinos Mitsotakis (1989-1992). Samaras was considered a hardliner on the "Macedonian Question" and on other "national" issues, dreaming of an "Orthodox Axis" in the Balkans. After being removed from his post in 1992 over the Macedonian Question, Samaras founded his own party, "Political Spring", located politically to the right of New Democracy. Samaras caused the government's fall from power by leaving New Democracy.

Before the 2004 general election, Samaras rejoined New Democracy. In the 2007 Greek legislative election he was elected to the Greek Parliament for Messinia, and consequently resigned from the European Parliament. In January 2009 he was appointed Minister for Culture after a government reshuffle.

Source: Eleftherotypia, Antipodes

Relations with Russia?

The Greek newspaper, Eleftheros recently published an article titled "Russia and us" written by Apostolos Apostolopoulos which can be accessed here. The article raises a number of important questions and makes a few relevant points about carefully thinking through Greece’s stuttering relations with Russia.

Recently, there has been talk about the need for a “polygamous” foreign policy because our monogamous relationship with the United States does not deliver. The U.S. President, Barack Obama has disappointed us and some (such as international jurist Vassilis Markezinis) suggests that we re-approach Moscow as a counterbalancing measure. This sounds fine. Moreover, others more powerful than Greece have preceded us, such as Germany which has re-approached Moscow slowly and carefully but steadily. Also (we should not forget), Mr Karamanlis, following the German example, launched the gas pipeline policy; namely, the South Stream project. Previously, Mr Tsochatzopoulos, formerly the Defence Minister, purchased anti-aircraft defence systems from Russia for the first time. The two politicians (from opposing parties) have opened doors.

Neither the supply of weapons systems nor the construction of gas pipelines; such as the South Stream project; however, were a general prelude to the reorientation of our foreign policy, although they were of special importance. That is why the reactions of the United States were intense and visible. However, have we posed the question, during our warm embraces with Putin, if these reactions were considered carefully enough? The recent distancing, hesitations and retractions that have occurred in our relations with Russia, indicate there was probably insufficient consideration made of these possible reactions. It would have been useful to have considered more carefully the difficulties of re-approaching Russia.

The first question we should pose is whether the idea of re-approaching Russia suggests a general re-orientation of our foreign policy, and consequently, a distancing from the Western fold. Without clarifying this, the “question” is simply unrealistic.

The second question is what we have to offer to Russia. For example, Turkey offers services to the United States and extracts favours. What we can offer to the Russians so that we have their steady support?

The third question, and perhaps the most critical, is what the Russians want and especially what can the Russians give us? Recognising that Greece is part of the larger (and still unresolved) Eastern Question.

Inertia and unconditional obedience (to the United States) has lead to poor foreign policy but also “steps" (towards Russia) without clearly defined objectives can also be destructive. With upcoming European elections, the parties should be explaining to Greeks how they believe Greece should be maneuvering itself in the world. But with the Pavlidis issue at the centre of our political life our thinking about these issues is limited.

Source: Eleftheros (Apostolos Apostolopoulos)

The absurdity of Cypriot "inter-communal talks"

The Cypriot newspaper Simerini recently published a caustic but insightful article (written in Greek) by Lazaros Mavros titled “Neither Inter-Communal and Neither Talks”. The article which can be read in Greek here provides a somewhat Realist interpretation of the historical and ongoing inter-communal talks between the Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriot minority. Here is the full text translated into English:

For many years now, for almost three decades, we write and print articles containing two words inside quotation marks, “inter-communal talks”. Controversially, how much are they actually inter-communal or indeed talks?

Regarding the first term, “inter-communal”, the last few decades have proved that it has been used to mislead, as the representative of the so-called “Turkish Cypriot community” was and is, in fact, a representative, an agent and instrument of theTurkish invaders. And using the “vehicle” and strategic bridgehead of the Turkish Cypriot minority - which is entirely controlled by Ankara - the Turks have attempted to expand their control over the entire island.

The second term in quotation marks, “talks”, has shown during the last few decades what was obvious from the beginning: with a Turkish pistol to the temple, the talks were a process of imposing the objectives of the invader onto their victims, with a view towards final capitulation.

The acceptance, from the victim, of “inter-communal talks” legitimised the process; being “clothed” under the auspices of the UN, and mainly accommodated, the United States and the United Kingdom. It also exempted….the rest of the international community…..from this headache! Ultimately, neither the internal practices, operations and occasional results of the “inter-communal talks”, in whatever form, have salvaged the concept of actual negotiations and talks. Currently, abandoned to a point considered unthinkable, is the basic rule of negotiations, that “none of those discussed, proposed, negotiated, binds the parties, except if they reach a final, comprehensive agreement”!

The clear result is that henceforth, the current Greek Cypriot negotiator Mr Christofias - who considers himself bound to what the previous negotiators, the Presidents of the Republic of Cyprus, consented to during the “talks” - is completely indifferent to the fact that the sovereign people of Cyprus rejected on 24 April 2004, with a 76% vote, all the results and derivations of the so-called “inter-communal talks” that were incorporated into the “Annan Plan". And he is indifferent to the internal declarations of the Annan Plan that it will be rendered dead and buried if it is rejected......

Source: Simerini (Lazaros Mavros)

South Stream gas pipeline gets sign off

After considerable uncertainty and conjecture over the last 12 months which Antipodes highlighted here, the basic agreement for the construction of the part of the gas pipeline South Stream which runs through Greek territory has been signed between the chief executive of Gazprom, Alexey Miller and the president of Greek company DESFA, Nicholas Mavromati and managing director Panagiotis Kanellopoulos in Sochi, Russia. Also present at the signing was Greek Minister of Development, Costis Hatzidakis.

As announced by the two companies, the agreement sets out the principles for cooperation between the parties during the pre-investment phase of the project and defines the conditions and rules regarding the construction and operating mechanisms of the consortium. The design, construction and operation of the project will be established on an equal basis between the two entities.

The consortium will also prepare a feasibility study for the pipeline. This study will include a detailed evaluation of all technical, legal, financial, environmental and economic characteristics and indicators of the project.

Source: ANA-MPA